In the previous session, The Nifty 50 witnessed consolidation after the sharp correction seen over the previous three sessions and ended marginally higher on May 13. However, caution persisted amid continued weakness in the rupee, elevated crude oil prices above the $100 per barrel mark, persistent FII selling, and rising volatility levels.
Technically, the Nifty formed a small-bodied bullish candle with a long upper shadow and minor lower shadow on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure at higher levels along with selective buying support at lower levels. The index continued to maintain a lower high–lower low structure and traded below all key moving averages, all of which remained downward sloping.
The 23,400 level remains a crucial support zone for the market as it coincides with the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the April rally. Sustaining above this level may open the possibility of a pullback toward the 23,600–23,700 zone, followed by the important resistance near 24,000. A decisive move above 24,000 will be required for bulls to regain stronger control. However, failure to hold above 23,400 could drag the index toward 23,200–23,100 in the upcoming sessions.
Derivatives data indicates a cautious undertone in the market. The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remained unchanged at 0.93 on May 13, reflecting balanced but cautious positioning by traders amid ongoing volatility.
India VIX, the market fear gauge, rose 0.75 percent to 19.43 and extended its upward move for the fourth consecutive session. The volatility index continues to indicate elevated discomfort among bulls, and analysts believe VIX needs to cool below the 17 mark for confidence to improve significantly.
Option chain positioning indicates immediate support near the 23,400 strike, while strong resistance remains visible around the 23,600–24,000 zone due to aggressive call writing activity at higher levels.
The Nifty Bank remained under pressure and declined by 99 points on May 13. The banking index formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a long upper shadow and minor lower wick, indicating selling pressure at higher levels despite limited buying support near lower zones.
Technically, Bank Nifty maintained its lower high–lower low structure and continued trading below all key moving averages, all of which remained downward sloping. Momentum indicators also remained weak, with RSI staying below the 40 mark at 38.99, while the MACD remained below both the signal and zero lines with expansion in negative histogram bars.
Immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed around 52,777–52,666, while resistance is seen near 54,365–55,050. A sustained breakout above resistance levels will be required to improve sentiment in the banking space.
Overall, the technical setup suggests a positive opening due to supportive global cues, but the broader market structure remains weak as key indices continue to trade below important moving averages amid elevated volatility and persistent selling pressure. Traders are likely to remain cautious unless Nifty decisively reclaims the 24,000 mark,” says Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.
