Stock market recommendations: Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives, SBI Securities shares his view on Nifty, Bank Nifty and top sectors in focus amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and US-Iran war. Here is his view for the week starting March 16, 2026. Nifty ViewThe sell-off on Dalal Street extended into a third consecutive week as escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continued to erode investor confidence. The pressure intensified sharply during the last three trading sessions, with the benchmark Nifty index declining over 5% during the week, marking its steepest weekly fall since June 2022. Automobile and Banking stocks emerged as the key laggards, exerting significant downward pressure on the index. However, the magnitude of the correction suggests that geopolitical concerns alone may not fully explain the sharp sell-off witnessed in the market.A major factor weighing on sentiment has been the heightened volatility in crude oil prices. Early last week, Brent crude briefly cooled off and slipped to a low near $80.29, providing temporary relief to equity markets. This respite proved short-lived as prices quickly reversed course and climbed back close to the $100 mark, once again unsettling investors. Adding to the uncertainty are concerns around gas shortages and potential supply disruptions following tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have raised cost pressures and margin-related worries across several sectors. The broader market impact becomes even more evident when viewed through the lens of the index’s deteriorating technical structure.From a technical perspective, the Nifty remains firmly entrenched in a downtrend, with the pace of the decline accelerating in recent sessions. Over the last 27 trading sessions, the index has corrected more than 12%, making it one of the sharpest drawdowns in recent history. The formation of weekly candles with long upper shadows over the past two weeks indicates persistent selling pressure at higher levels, suggesting that every pullback is being used as an opportunity to exit positions. Additionally, the index has closed below the crucial 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally from 21743 to the all-time high of 26373, signaling a weakening technical setup and implying that the market may require more time before forming a meaningful bottom.Momentum indicators further reinforce this bearish view, with the weekly RSI slipping to 30.43, its lowest level since the COVID-induced market crash. Going ahead, the 22850–22800 zone is expected to act as immediate support for the index, and a sustained break below 22800 could extend the correction towards 22500. On the upside, the 23450–23500 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance, with any recovery attempt facing selling pressure at higher levels.Bank Nifty ViewThe banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has also witnessed a sharp correction in recent sessions and has notably underperformed the frontline indices, reflecting sustained selling pressure in banking heavyweights. Over the last week alone, the index has declined by nearly 7%, and more importantly, it has broken down from its rising channel on the weekly chart. This breakdown signals a clear shift in the medium-term trend, indicating a transition from consolidation to a phase of pronounced weakness.From its recent peak of 61678, Bank Nifty has corrected by nearly 13% within a span of just 15 trading sessions, underscoring the intensity and speed of the ongoing decline. Such a sharp fall over a short period typically points to aggressive unwinding of positions and heightened risk aversion within the banking space, suggesting that investors are increasingly cautious about the near-term outlook for the sector.Technically, the setup remains decisively bearish. All key moving averages along with momentum-based indicators are aligned on the downside, confirming the prevailing negative trend. The weekly RSI is currently placed around 34.56, marking its lowest level in recent years. This reflects persistent weakness and indicates a lack of meaningful buying interest, despite the magnitude of the correction already witnessed.Looking ahead, the 53400–53200 zone is expected to act as an important support area, as a horizontal trendline support is positioned in this region. However, any sustained breakdown below the 53200 level could further intensify selling pressure and open up additional downside towards 52500, followed by 51800 in the short term. On the upside, any pullback or relief rally is likely to face strong resistance in the 54500–54600 zone, which is expected to act as an immediate hurdle and may attract fresh selling interest.Overall, until Bank Nifty shows clear signs of stabilization and manages to reclaim key resistance levels, the trend is likely to remain under pressure. In such an environment, market participants may continue to adopt a cautious, level-based approach while closely monitoring price action around critical support zones.Sectors in focus:From a technical standpoint, Nifty Auto, Private Banks, PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, FMCG, IT, India Tourism and Media sectors are expected to remain under pressure and underperform in the short term.In contrast, the CPSE space stands out as the only segment likely to deliver relative outperformance over the near term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
