Adani Power Limited (APL) has established its position as India’s largest private coal-based independent power producer, with a portfolio of 18,150 MW across 12 plants in eight states, according to a Morgan Stanley research report.The company has successfully revived 4,370 MW of stressed assets and is integrating another 2,900 MW, consistently maintaining plant availability above 90% through digital operations and in-house coal sourcing and logistics. APL now holds an 8% share of India’s coal capacity and generation, second only to NTPC, and is projected to increase its market share to 15% by FY32.“We forecast its market share to reach 15 per cent by F32e with a 41.9GW portfolio (2.5x vs F25). APL has seen favourable resolution of most regulatory issues and has a strong balance sheet” the report added.The report highlights APL’s strong track record in turning around distressed assets. The Raipur plant, acquired in 2019, saw EBITDA rise from Rs 2.1 billion to Rs 24 billion by FY25, while the Mahan plant, acquired in 2022, quadrupled EBITDA to Rs 19 billion in just three years, fully repaying its debt. Even the previously non-operational Raigarh plant now generates an EBITDA of Rs 12.7 billion annually.Recent FY25 acquisitions—including Mutiara (1,200 MW), Korba (600 MW), Butibori (600 MW), and Dahanu (500 MW)—are expected to significantly boost earnings in FY26–FY27. Financially, APL has strengthened dramatically, with net debt-to-EBITDA dropping from 9.7x in FY19 to 1.8x in FY25, aided by the recovery of regulatory dues and favorable resolutions of legacy issues.The company has also demonstrated rapid execution capabilities, completing India’s largest supercritical plant at Mundra (4,620 MW) in record time and commissioning the Godda transnational plant during the pandemic in just 3.5 years.Most regulatory challenges have been resolved favorably. The Supreme Court dismissed allegations from a short-seller report, and the market regulator SEBI recently cleared the Adani group of scrutiny.Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage on Adani Power with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a price target of Rs 818, suggesting a 30% upside. The report forecasts that APL’s capacity and EBITDA will grow 2.5x and 3x respectively by FY33.(With inputs from ANI)
