Monetary policy: RBI likely to hold repo rate at 5.5% amid growth concerns, subdued inflation – Experts
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to maintain the repo rate at 5.5 per cent in its upcoming monetary policy review on August 6, following three consecutive rate cuts totalling 100 basis points. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will begin its three-day deliberations on Monday.While inflation remains comfortably below the RBI’s target range, with CPI-based retail inflation at 2.1 per cent in June, experts quoted by news agency PTI believe the central bank may hold off on further easing to assess the full impact of earlier cuts.Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis noted that recent inflation prints and the 25 per cent US tariff would have already been factored in during previous policy discussions. “We do not expect any change of stance or policy rate this time. The tone will be more cautious with some comfort being drawn on the resilient growth front,” he said, as per PTI.As per CareEdge Ratings, “the RBI had already frontloaded the rate cuts, anticipating the moderation in inflation,” and further reductions are unlikely unless growth challenges worsen. The agency added that incomplete transmission of earlier cuts also argues for a pause.Icra chief economist Aditi Nayar pointed out that “with recent CPI prints signalling a lower trajectory for the second half of this calendar year,” inflation estimates could be revised downward from the MPC’s earlier projection of 3.7 per cent. “The tariffs imposed by the US will pose a downside risk to GDP growth… the balance remains slightly tilted towards a final rate cut of 25 bps,” she added, as per PTI.Crisil’s Dharmakirti Joshi shared a similar view, anticipating a 25-basis-point cut, citing low inflation and greater risks to growth.The RBI is tasked with keeping inflation at 4 per cent, with a ±2 per cent margin. The MPC includes RBI officials Sanjay Malhotra, Poonam Gupta, Rajiv Ranjan, and external members Nagesh Kumar, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Ram Singh.
